Putin’s War Sabotages Russia’s Energy Future

Graphic illustrating decrease in Russia's oil production (State Dept./S. Gemeny Wilkinson)

Russia’s share of internationally traded energy is projected to decline more than 7% over the coming decade, thanks to economic shifts resulting from Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.

In a recent report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says the war sparked a global energy crisis that will significantly reduce Russia’s own future energy exports. “Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving it with a much-diminished position,” IEA says in its report, World Energy Outlook 2022 (PDF, 13MB).

“Russia’s share of internationally traded energy, which stood at close to 20% in 2021, falls to 13% in 2030,” the IEA statement adds. In its 2022 outlook, IEA projects Russia’s oil production in 2025 will be 2 million barrels per day lower than in its 2021 outlook – a 17% drop. Natural gas production for 2025 is 23% lower than in IEA’s 2021 report. Share of internationally traded oil and gas will have fallen by half by 2030 compared to 2021 levels.

“Russian fossil fuel exports never return — in any of our scenarios — to the levels seen in 2021,” the report adds.

Graphic illustrating decrease in Russia's natural gas production (State Dept./S. Gemeny Wilkinson)
Graphic illustrating decrease in Russia’s natural gas production (State Dept./S. Gemeny Wilkinson)